16 May, 2008
I came across an article on Forbes.com about the role serendipity plays in careers called "A Pinch of Luck," and it got me thinking about how luck influences business success. Often, maybe even most of the time, it is a vital ingredient in creating those successes we read about in business publications.
To illustrate my point, here’s a classic thought experiment, with a twist, using a two-sided coin with a 50/50 chance of landing on heads or tails on any one flip.
Imagine that 2,097,152 people "invest" $1,000 each to enter a coin flipping contest. The rules are simple: on each round of flipping, those who flip heads get to continue and those who flip tails are out of the contest. This continues until one person is left - the person who has flipped all heads, however many in a row it takes. (It will take 21 rounds.)
All that money that was invested by the participants becomes the prize pool and it is awarded thusly:
- 9th through 64th place finishers receive $10,000,000 each.
- 2nd through 8th place finishers receive $100,000,000 each.
- The sole survivor, and winner, receives the balance of $837,152,000.
Because of the size of the prizes, this contest would receive a great deal of publicity. Everyone would comment on how lucky the winners were, because everyone knows that you can’t control which way a flipped coin lands.
However, let’s change the scenario from flipping coins to starting up a business.
Read the rest of this entry »
13 May, 2008
Chip and Dan Heath, writing in Fast Company, show us "How to sway people’s decisions with the gentlest of nudges."
The basic premise is that people can be influenced to make a decision by how the default position is crafted.
Because inertia is so crucial, world-class nudgers recognize that the default option is critical. Chances are, you weren’t craving the USA Today that came with your last hotel stay, but you just couldn’t be bothered to call the front desk and reclaim your $0.75. (Notice that if the default option were reversed, and you had to call to get your copy, there’d be more trees and fewer infographics in the world.)
Ethics Alert: if you become one of the "world-class nudgers", remember to use your powers only for good, never evil.
Next, Newt Barrett of Content Marketing Today expands on the recent trend of the internet lengthening the buying process.
This is horrendous news for you if:
- You have no web presence.
- Your website does not make it easy for visitors to find exactly the solution they are seeking.
- Your website does not contain intrinsically valuable content that will put you at the top of the list of potential suppliers.
- Your only e-mail communications with your buyers are self-promoting and irrelevant to their information needs.
Finally, John Jantsch of Duct Tape Marketing says that public speaking is a competetive marketing skill for any and all entrepreneurs.
When you have to get your thoughts down into a concise 30 minute talk and then go out and get instant, sometimes too truthful, feedback it develops character and poise along with an improved message.
Be sure to follow the link to the podcast interview with Tom Antion.
6 May, 2008
Clate Mask, posting at Small Business Trends, cautions against On Again, Off Again marketing.
His first point:
You are a marketer, not a provider of product x or service y. You are a marketer.
There’s more, so be sure to read the whole thing.
Next, Paul Michelman, posting on HBR’s Conversation Starter, tells us How to Resist the Urge to Overreach.
We all need to take a cold hard look at our spheres of responsibility and make sure we’re dedicating the right resources and attention to the right things. Have you taken on too many responsibilities? Could burnout affect your performance and your ability get the most from your part of the organization? It serves no one best interests to let that happen. More so, when your performance suffers, you lose control of your agenda. (emphasis mine)
This is a problem I see consistently with my business owner clients. They have 50 things on their To Do list and every single one of them is urgent. Then, on top of that, they have a dozen new products or services that they want to introduce by next week. It’s a recipe for losing focus at a minimum, and, in the worst case, serious burnout.
Finally, a little levity from Donald Luskin at Chronicle of the Conspiracy. He offers up a few pics from the road in California.
My question is this: Is the owner of the car in pic #1 being ironic? Since it’s California, you can’t be sure.
Pic #2 is a perfect example of my personal philosophy that there are a million ways to make an honest dollar.
